Ste Tudor thinks Chelsea’s young players could be in for a tough test in the Europa Conference League this Thursday.
- Shamrock to trouble Blues at the Bridge
- Big shot-count expected from hosts
- Back BTTS and over 3.5 goals double at 11/8
Quality Vs Motivation
Having won all five of their league phase commitments in the Conference League, and already qualified for the knockout phase, Chelsea are expected to deploy the kids against Shamrock Rovers on Thursday.
Indeed, if Carney Chukwuemeka is passed fit and Joao Felix isn’t, it would not be a surprise if Enzo Maresca goes with the same 11 that comfortably dispensed with Astana last week. That side featured four teenagers and an average age of 20.9.
A win will guarantee top spot for the Blues but there is no significant advantage to be gained from that. Their work is done.
As for the visitors, they too are unbeaten in the competition and with their domestic duties wrapped up – finishing second in the League of Ireland to Shelbourne – the Hoops are enjoying the craic in Europe.
Impressive draws against APOEL and Rapid Vienna, combined with victories over Larne, the New Saints and Borac have elevated them to sixth.
An unlikely win at the Bridge will see Shamrock automatically progress to the last 16. A draw and it’s in the lap of the gods. A loss and the play-offs await.
What we have here then is a far superior side with little to play for up against a motivated underdog. That redresses the balance somewhat.
Don’t discount goals either. The Conference League games of both teams combined have produced four goals per 90 minutes to date.
Kenny To Spring A Surprise At 9/2
It hardly needs saying that Rovers will be up against it on Thursday evening, facing a Chelsea side that is unbeaten in 12 matches across all competitions. The Blues second-string still contains individuals of considerable pedigree.
But the Hoops too are in form, having lost only once in their last 10 outings, and for all that Chelsea are putting together a vintage season, problems at the back persist. A solitary clean sheet across the Blues’ last 11 league games is testament to that.
Up front, Chelsea score liberally but in defence Maresca’s men usually give up chances.
Acknowledging this brings two bets into play, the first backing the visitors to score over 0.5 goals. That offers up 11/10.
Then there’s Johnny Kenny to consider, the Celtic forward enjoying a prolific period on loan in Dublin. The 21-year-old has fired 20 goals in 2024, reserving some of his best performances for the Conference League where he is the competition’s joint leading goal-scorer alongside Chelsea’s Christoper Nkunku.
High Shot-Count For Hosts A Near-Cert
The Blues continue to rack up a high volume of attempts on goal, a season long habit.
In Kazakhstan, 13 shots on target resulted from a hefty 24 attempts. At the weekend, meanwhile, a late long-ranger from Moises Caicedo amounted to Chelsea’s 100th shot on target in the Premier League this term.
Unsurprisingly, that’s a league high.
Should we narrow our focus to individuals, it is Marc Guiu who comes to the fore. The 18-year-old striker has accrued three shots on target in each of his last two Conference League outings.
It makes sense not to overlook the shots market and to expect lots of goals, including early strikes. This is especially true in Europe where 37.5% of Chelsea’s goals have come inside the opening 25 minutes.
Yet Another Spot Of Bother
Chelsea have converted from the spot in four of their seven European fixtures this season and that alone is notable.
Yet what is even more striking is the extremely high number of penalties being awarded in this competition, with a remarkable 10.5% of the total goals tally from the play-offs onward coming from spot-kicks.
By comparison, the percentage in the Premier League to this juncture is 7.2%.
A stricter code adhered to by continental refs is clearly the main explanation for this hike while it’s also worth noting that missed penalties have not been included in the final figure.
The bulk of the play this Thursday will be in and around Shamrock’s area, with ballers such as Guiu and George involved. You know what to do.
Recommended bets
- Back BTTS and over 3.5 goals @ 11/8
- Back Johnny Kenny to score anytime @ 9/2
- Back a penalty to be awarded @ 10/11
